But Then Again You Dont Have 40 Million People in Your State
Over the coming months, the U.S. Census Bureau will roll out the results of the 2020 census, its in one case-a-decade headcount that volition requite us precise details on the size, growth, age, and racial-ethnic makeup of the nation's population. In the pb-up to that over the past year, the Bureau has released the results of other large surveys and studies, which I take analyzed to pinpoint central demographic trends that the decennial demography is likely to confirm.
These trends include an unprecedented stagnation in population growth, a continued decrease in Americans' geographical mobility, more pronounced population aging, a first-fourth dimension decline in the size of the white population, and rise racial and ethnic multifariousness amongst millennials, Gen Z, and younger groups, which now comprise a majority of the nation'due south residents. Below, I recap those trends and conclude past examining alternative Census Bureau projections that reinforce the crucial role immigration volition play in future population growth.
Unprecedented stagnation in population growth
For much of the recent past, the U.S. has been one of the most rapidly growing countries in the industrialized world. This was especially true in the last half of the 20th century, due to the post-World War II baby nail and rising immigration in the 1980s and 1990s. The initial results from the 2020 Demography show the 2d smallest decade-long growth in America's history.
Recently released Census Agency population estimates prove that from July 1, 2019 to July i, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual growth rate since at least 1900.
National population growth began to dip later 2000, especially after the Cracking Recession and, in contempo years, due to new clearing restrictions. Yet the 2019-to-2020 rate is well below about growth rates over the past 102 years, and less than one-half the level observed as recently every bit 2000.
Part of this sharp decline tin be attributed to the COVID-nineteen pandemic, which brought more deaths and further clearing restrictions. Still, the entire 2010s decade was one of fewer births, more than deaths, and uneven immigration. Depression natural increment levels (a issue of the crumbling of the population) will likely continue regardless of federal policy, suggesting that only increased immigration tin go a driver of U.South. growth.
Continued decrease in geographic mobility
Another indicator of the nation'south demographic stagnation is its depression level of geographical mobility. In the yr before COVID-19 swept the country, a smaller share (ix.3%) of Americans changed residence than in any year since 1947, when the Demography Bureau first started collecting almanac migration statistics. This was calculated from the Census Bureau'southward Electric current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which tin can be used to rail residents' relocations through March 2020.
U.S. migration trends accept shown a fairly consistent refuse since the economically prosperous belatedly-1940s to 1960s, when approximately one-fifth of Americans changed residence annually. By the late 1990s, only well-nigh 15% to 16% of the population moved each twelvemonth, dropping to thirteen% to 14% in the early 2000s. Migration dropped even further—to the 11% to 12% range—subsequently the Great Recession, reflecting the immediate touch of housing and labor market crashes. Since 2012, it has continued dropping to last year'south new low of 9.3%.
Recent migration declines occurred among both local, within-county moves (which are largely made for housing and family reasons) as well as for longer-distance moves between labor markets—though there was a sharper decline in the former. A adept part of these declines occurred among young developed millennials, many of whom remained "stuck in identify" even in the late 2010s.
It is certainly possible that mobility rates could tick up in the 2020-to-2021 menstruum because of COVID-19-related migration away from cities or moving back in with family members. All the same such moves might be temporary at all-time, and in that location is a clear possibility that the long-term stagnation in the nation'southward geographic mobility over the past decade could reemerge as the pandemic subsides.
A pronounced crumbling of the population
The 2020 demography will also highlight the sharp growth dissever betwixt the old and the young in America, as suggested by estimates from the Census Bureau'southward National Demographic Analysis. They show that betwixt 2010 and 2020, the number of people over historic period 55 grew past 27%, which is twenty times larger than the growth rate of the collective population under 55 (ane.3%). The largest driver of this divide is the baby boomer generation, who passed the age of 65 during the past decade, increasing the size of the 65- to 74-year-sometime age grouping past a half.
Among the younger generations, millennials helped power the modest growth of the 25- to 34-yr-old population, though the smaller generations following them tamp this growth charge per unit down to close to nada.
We can expect all states, metro areas, and about counties to show gains in their 55-and-older populations. Even in demographically stagnating areas, the "aging in place" of the baby boomer generation within them will atomic number 82 to population growth for seniors.
The story is much different for the younger population. With their national growth rate at almost zero, migration—either in or out—will determine if an area registers a gain or loss of young people. This is reflected in Census Agency estimates for 2010-to-2020 land changes in under-18 populations: Fully 31 states register losses in their youth population, including large swaths of the Northeast, Midwest, and interior S.
In dissimilarity, 19 states and Washington, D.C. testify population gains in young people, largely due to the in-migration (from outside the country and from other states) of youth and families with children. While the nation as a whole is facing heightened age dependency (the increased ratio of senior retirees to the working young), these places may be in a improve position to eternalize their future young labor forces.
A commencement-time decline in the nation's white population
The most recent Demography Bureau estimates by race testify a pocket-size turn down of sixteen,612 in the nation's white population over the 2010-to-2019 period. If this tendency is confirmed with the full 2020 census, the 2010-to-2020 decade would be the only decade since the outset demography was taken in 1790 when the white population did non grow.
This decline in the white population is a major driver of the nation'southward demographic stagnation. White population gains in recent decades have grown smaller over time, from 11.2 meg between 1970 and 1980 down to ii.viii million between 2000 and 2010. But a white population loss between 2010 and 2020 would be unprecedented.
The white population decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups, leading to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size. In 2019, the median age for white Americans was 43.7, compared to 29.8 for Latino or Hispanic Americans, 34.6 for Black Americans, 37.five for Asian Americans, and 20.ix for persons identifying equally two or more than races. While white fertility may have taken an accentuated dip due to delayed marriage and childbearing for millennials—whose lives continued to impacted past the Great Recession—the long-term refuse projected in the white population is due to its increased aging.
This means that other racial and ethnic groups are responsible for generating overall population growth. The U.S. grew by a total of 19.5 1000000 people between 2010 and 2019. Latinos or Hispanics contributed 10 million people to that total—over half of the nation's growth. Asian Americans, Black Americans, and persons of ii or more races contributed 4.three 1000000, 3.2 1000000, and ane.seven million people, respectively. These groups constituted the main engines of the nation's growth, and are likely to do the aforementioned going forward.
Greater racial diversity amid millennials and Gen Z
Demography Agency population estimates released last year revealed that more half of the nation'south total population are now members of the millennial generation or younger. And while these younger generations—born in 1981 or later—are non growing as apace every bit older age groups, they are far more racially various.
1 reason for this is that the white population declines discussed above are more pronounced among the immature. Since 2000, the under-18 white population registered absolute population losses. Meanwhile, millennials and their juniors were built-in during years of higher immigration. In many ways, from the 1980s through the early 2000s, immigrants and their children have contributed to both the growth and multifariousness of the nation'south younger population—all the same, more recently, natural increase rather than immigration is the master source of Latino or Hispanic population growth.
This has led to stark generational differences in diverseness. Most 60% of the U.S. population identifies as white alone; that figure reaches more than than 70% for baby boomers and their elders, but only about half for the combined Gen Z and younger populations, with nearly ii-fifths of those groups identifying every bit "Black or brown."
These generational differences are of import for public and private sector planning, especially with respect to the needs of the increasingly diverse younger population. The generational separate in multifariousness likewise fosters what I have called a "cultural generation gap," which has impacted politics in means that are sometimes divisive. It is important to understand that as these younger, various generations age, their tastes, values, and political orientations volition become the nation's "mainstream." As we enter 2021, the starting time millennials have already turned age xl.
Immigration is essential for countering further stagnation
The above analyses make obviously that the nation is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation. Much of this is attributable to lower fertility rates and increased bloodshed associated with an crumbling population. The COVID-19 pandemic is certainly accentuating this pattern.
Yet even earlier the pandemic, census-based population projections suggested time to come population growth levels that lie well below those the nation has previously experienced. The primary project suggests that if electric current trajectories of fertility, mortality, and clearing persist, U.S. population growth between 2020 and 2060 would be 22% (to 404 meg people). That is half the 44% growth rate of the previous four decades.
This projection assumes an annual immigration level roughly twice that of the year earlier the pandemic. If that lower immigration level were to persist, growth from 2020 to 2060 would be reduced to just 14% (376 1000000 people) for an average annual growth rate of 0.32%. (A project assuming nothing immigration would pb to a internet decline in the U.S. population over that twoscore-yr menstruation.)
An even larger consequence of lower immigration would be a stagnating youth population. Under the Demography Bureau's main projection, betwixt 2020 and 2035, the nation's nether-18 population would abound by 4%. But under its low-immigration projection, in that location would be null growth in the under-eighteen population. In both projections, the over-65 population would abound by at least 38%.
One way to secure more rapid growth of the youth population would be to increase immigration to three times the electric current level. Under this scenario, the youth population would increase its growth to nine% over the next 15 years.
These alternative projections evidence that given our rapidly aging native-born population, immigration will ensure growth—specially among the critical youth and labor force populations
Awaiting the 2020 census
Every bit the full 2020 census results are released over the course of this year, we will proceeds a more thorough understanding of national population trends, with great detail for communities across the country. But other available information already reveals the broader film: We are becoming a state with historically low population growth, rapid aging, and greater racial and ethnic diversity, particularly among the nation'due south youth.
Beyond confronting the COVID-19 crunch and fallout, the adjacent decade will bring with it new challenges and opportunities in dealing with greater age dependency, increasing racial and indigenous harmony, and resolving spatial disparities—all in the context of a less demographically dynamic nation. It will besides telephone call for increased attention to the role of immigration to counter fifty-fifty further stagnation.
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Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/